0000022649 00000 n So no new investments until the deadlock ends…Oh, and just in case it helps, in my corner of the rapid transit world the spending schedule for the under-construction San Sebastián subway was reasonably easy to find. These nominal overruns can lead to real problems if there are contract disputes or a budget crisis, and usually if your inflation rate is 30% then your budget is in perpetual crisis mode. 1104 0 obj 0000013226 00000 n I don’t think this distribution necessarily applies to developing countries or to projects in different urban geography, but it might be useful as a sanity check. It’s an approximation that works when inflation rates are low – and for the purpose of this discussion, 5% over the course of a 6-year subway timeline is low; I am not making a macroeconomic claim about long-term price stability, but an econometric claim about measurement errors. xref /ID [<48e70241a9796e8e0e26f25d329cff93><48e70241a9796e8e0e26f25d329cff93>] Inflation rate is defined as the annual percent change in consumer prices compared with the previous year's consumer prices.. 0000001392 00000 n /StructTreeRoot 175 0 R A second reason why inflation in developing countries is higher is because many of these countries have volatile exchange rates and do not necessarily have a well-established central bank to … 0000003243 00000 n 0000023309 00000 n It would be great to have the yearly breakdown of construction costs for those latest extensions in Caracas and Maracaibo.I don’t know about Rome Line C, but Barcelona L9/10 is perhaps a special case, in that the delays are not due to technical reasons, but purely financial/political. 0000004145 00000 n Inflation targeting in developing countries revisited . /L 1563049 The broad objective of this study is to examine inflation and growth in developing countries especially in Nigeria with the view of ascertaining its effect on the Nigerian economy. 0000034681 00000 n 0000021962 00000 n << 0000039929 00000 n %���� This is a list of cities and states sorted by the CIA-based inflation rate.

Check the source above for the costs of Lines 6 and 7: it mentions nominal overruns, disputes, and schedule slips.In contrast, on the same table, we can look at Turkey. /Root 1069 0 R /Size 1105

/Linearized 1 )Do you mean the budgets for Bilbao? /Metadata 173 0 R

Posted by Anis Chowdhury on 17 March 2011 . /Filter /FlateDecode The word inflation has been demonized since Alexander del Mar mainstreamed it. About the only first-world projects for which I care much about the timeline are ones that have become legendary for how long they took, like Rome Metro Line C and Barcelona Metro Lines 9 and 10.The broader point here is that it is often difficult to adapt knowledge from one context to another. The importance of credibility to the success of inflation targeting in developing countries has been discussed by Masson, Savastano, and Sharma (1997), and analyzed more formally by Kumhof (2000).

/ViewerPreferences 174 0 R Out of a total of € 180M: 20M in 2018 (tunneling, started September), 28 in 2019 (tunneling), 41 in 2020 (tunneling and systems), 53 in 2021 (mostly systems), 34 in 2022 (systems and testing), 4 in 2023 (wrapping up). When the recession hit, the Generalitat decided they couldn’t afford finishing the central section right then (fair enough). << Turkey is an upper middle-income country, and Iran is poorer but still solidly middle-income. << I have three Iranian projects in my dataset: Moreover, high inflation leads to nominal cost overruns if it is higher than expected or if the project takes longer than expected. /Pages 165 0 R In general, though, Iran trades a lot with China and Russia, which build metros using local tech.The US Army Corps of Engineers uses construction midpoint to deflate constructions costs, which in some cases span a decade or longer. That works well enough for a low inflationary environment. Inflation rates for developed countries tend to move together although the inflation levels can vary significantly (these data are seasonally adjusted). The standard way to compare projects’ real costs is to deflate to the midpoint of construction. Developing countries have had bouts of inflation before - indeed, some are famous for them, like Brazil, which saw triple-digit inflation in the late 1980s and early 1990s. Getting the exact conversion correct is important, and evidently the data table I uploaded in November got one Turkish project wrong, making the spread in costs between different lines look larger than it really was.But this is about more than just picking the correct year. The best example of this is actually not in either the Arab world or Turkey, but in Iran.

However, in reality inflation at moderate levels is good for an economy. And yet, middle-income economy issues like high inflation rates force the analysis to be a lot more careful to avoid making casual 50% errors in either direction.Isn’t there also an issue in Iran that they have difficulty sourcing certain parts?I know it majorly affects their airlines but I don’t know whether it does rail as the U.S. plays a much smaller role in that and the European Union routinely flouts the embargo…I have no idea.

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